Downtown Vancouver realtor Ray Kahn sat down with the Pilot Mortgage Group to share his insight into the real estate market and share some words of wisdom. He says there are still ample opportunities out there but buyers need to be aware of the hidden costs and challenges.
1. What are your forecasts for the next 6 months, 12 months and 5 years in your area?
Forecasts are saying price will rise. 2020 will be a bull market. We’ve recently seen Vancouver prices tick upwards for the 3rd month in a row. This can certainly happen if this reflation trend continues.
It’s almost impossible to forecast what will happen in the next 5 years, because you can’t necessarily just use past performance to predict the future. But if we look at the last two decades home values double or nearly doubled at the end of a ten year period. But we need to ask ourselves how high can prices really get here in Vancouver until people decide to leave and therefore have a decrease in demand. I don’t think anyone necessarily knows the answer to that.
2. What do you think will be the best investment for home buyers within the following segments- townhomes, homes, condos, apartments
Detached houses have taken a hit over the last couple years. As such, I would encourage those who can to get into the market and buy detached in the most desirable areas they and afford, before they go up again.
Townhouses: Compared to newer wood frame construction in East Van, I would say that there have been some downtown concrete townhouses that have offered pretty good value, though they would need renovations - but offer good value.
Condo’s: Similar to what I previously said about townhouse, I would say that very well located condo units have come on that have needed updates but sold at prices that offered good value. These units, given their size, could be transformed for fairly reasonable costs.
3. What developments are happening in your area that are important for the long term potential
The NE False Creek will extend downtown outward and will affect prices near Stadium Chinatown, immediately to the west, and at the base of Georgia St.
Also, the new St. Pauls is going to have big effects on the Strathcona area all the way out east to Clark Drive.
We will also likely see significant changes along Hastings Street, which likely attract new attention to that area.
4. What is the biggest negative or worry for your area with regards to investment vulnerability?
Record new homes are under construction .. roughly 45,000 new unit complete between 2020 - 2022. This influx of supply could possibly flood the market if demand is not met and we can potentially see a decrease in prices. It’s basic supply and demand principles.
However, a recent Rennie demographics study noted population growth to be consistently strong at around 40,000 people per year. Additionally, economic outlook for the province, which is key, is looking to continue to be strong.